A Closer Look at the Employment Cost Index

L abor costs have recently come under scrutiny by policymakers, business economists, and financial market participants. The primary concern has been that tight labor markets might lead to faster compensation growth and, ultimately, to upward pressure on general inflation. The employment cost index (ECI) has received particularly close attention because many analysts consider it to be one of the best measures of labor cost inflation. Other analysts, however, have questioned whether the ECI and other labor cost measures are useful in inflation forecasting. One reason for doubting the ECI’s inflation forecasting value is that a moderate upward trend in ECI growth over the last three years has, so far, not been matched by a rise in the general inflation rate.